Appointment is Policy
Ruto’s cabinet line-up and 2027 re-election agenda to avert one-term President tag
Mithika Linturi , Moses Kuria and Njuguna Ndung’u CSs to watch
The Native
Appointment is policy. Four months to the second year anniversary of United Democratic Alliance (UDA) aka Kenya Kwanza alliance assumption of power, President William Ruto’shardiwork in his choice of cabinet line-up is all out there for scrutiny and performance evaluation.
The choice of individuals to steer policy leadership in each sector reflects a leader’s values, priorities and what he perceives as important agenda of the moment.
The fifth President of the Republic, Dr William Ruto, assembled a cabinet deemed to reflect suitability and commitment to delivery of the Kenya Kwanza (KK) Coalition manifesto, or what he is fond of repeating often as “the Planâ€.
However, it is also a legitimate political expectation that he also had one eye on 2027 re-election agenda in mind so as to avert a one-term president tag his competitors would relish to pin on him.
This agenda should have been among his top concerns going by the plum cabinet jobs he doled out to the Mt Kenya region, as a generous reward to a vote basket that put him over the finish line at the ballot on August 9 2022 Presidential contest.
The bloc stood firm with him when under unrelenting five-year assault from his former boss and ally, retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, and his unsuccessful Building Bridges Initiatives (BBI) Azimio projects.
The appointment of Prof Kindiki Kithure ( Cs Interior), Mr Moses Kuria (Cs Trade then Public Service), Mr Mithika Linturi (Cs Agriculture), Ms Alice Wahome(Cs Lands,Public Works,Housing and Urban Development )and Zacharia Njeru (Cs Water and Sanitation) from the same region was a firm statement of gratitude.
At least on the surface of it .
At the time they were made, the appointments also marked an uncommon courage on Dr Ruto’s part, given he had only 22 cabinet slots and 47 counties to work with, besides regional, gender and ethnic sensibilities to navigate around.
In addition to deputy President, Mr Rigathi Gachagua, Attorney General, Mr J B Muturi, and Police IG, Japhet Koome, a picture emerges of an intentional investment that leaves little room for crotics to cast doubts about how highly he valued the Mt Kenya constituency.
The region’s behavior on 9 August 2022 stunned many a pundit, not only by electing Ruto andn UDA candidates as a seamless solid bloc across the board, but also served a resounding irreverent slap on the face of his most fierce opponent, retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.
The voting result was a brutal rejection of everything uhuru represented, said and did in respect of 2022 succession political dynamics.
It was a drastic shift of fortunes for Uhuru who had ascended to power riding on a heroic and ecstatic popular wave in 2013 with International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments hovering over his head, but buoyed by a rare surge of Gema ethnic nationalism stirred by perceived bungling of investigations and “wrong†indictments around 2007/08 Post Election Violence (PEV).
Uhuru played a vicious later day Machiavellian, from deploying his entire civil service machinery, unleashing the criminal justice system and the Kenya Revenue Authority against perceived Ruto backers to wrestle the region back from the “tanga tanga†wave to no avail.
His frustration at dismal results despite his best efforts was manifest in publicly issued threats over vernacular media outlets that the Gema Nation would live to regret if they ever voted to entrust the sword of the state with certain individuals among other tricks.
The outrage he expressed on live national TV at a June 2019 religious event organized by the Akorino Christian church at the Kasarani Sports Stadium in vernacular goes down in history among lowest moments of ignominy of 2022 succession contest cycle.
At the ballot on August 9, it turned out the Gema nation he was fond of referring to as “andu aitu†( our people) had switched loyalty and allegiance to Ruto, and voted as such , sneering at all he had said as justification for preferring Raila Odinga to his own deputy of 10 years.
With the wisdom of hide sight , even if Ruto had lost to Raila Odinga, but without the Gema vote, the collective rebuke by the Mt Kenya voters on their former chieftain would still stick and sting.
And which brings us to present argument that this triumphant outcome against all odds should give Ruto and his advisors food for thought in relation to 2027 re-election plans.
They should pay close attention on three dockets that have potential to make Ruto administration a one term reign, dim or boostre-election prospects in relation to the Mt Kenya vote basket : Joseph Ndung’u , Mithika Linturi and Moses Kuria.
These plum dockets of Treasury, Agriculture and Trade hoists the trio as the triple heads of the spear whose performance impact touches every corner of Kenya, but more consequentially, on the livelihoods and economic aspirations Mt Kenya region cares most about as a cultural and a political constituency.
Many commentators and tv talk show pundits have spent countless screen hours and acres of newspaper columns postulating about why Mt Kenya rejected its former darling political chieftain and his succession plans on August 9 with a vengeance.
They point to his starling performance in rolling out state of the art infrastructure projects to make the point the voter was unfair, fickle and ungrateful
Either due to competence, compromise or compliance blind spots, little interrogation focused on the fact that for some strange reasons, Uhuru alienated and insulated himself from the Mt Kenya constituency for the entire 10 years of his presidency.
In his first term, he never held one single “housekeeping†caucus with the elected leadership of the region to listen, isolate, define and agree on the region’s pressing priority needs.
This monarchist stance flustered the elected leadership to the bones. In return, they resorted to airing their grievances in public during public events like funerals he could not avoid.
The choreographed jamborees at Sagana State Lodge and at State House in Nairobi conducted on national TV were essentially pressure valves to get the region to vent, but little of substance achieved beyond windfall minted by coordinating state bureaucracies.
In February 2016 at Sagana State Lodge during a Devolution conference, Mt Kenya leadership literary “cornered†the President and insisted he had to grant them an audience.
He granted the audiene, but he turned up in the company of late Joseph Nkaisserri and Eugene Wamalwa, effectively making it difficult to raise the burning issues they had in mind.
In frustration then Kiambu governor, Mr William Kabogo, grabbed the mic and addressed the President in his vernacular dialect, despite the best efforts by some aficionados to take the mic from him.
“Thirikari ino ni iitu,no nginya tuigue urugari wayo… (this government is ours, we must feel its warmth) Kabogo said to the surprise of many at his audacity. Kabogo is notorious for his cerebral spine, and few could get away with or dare do what he did.
Indeed, Nkaisserri would later joke he could press charges of “hate speech†against those who addressed the head of state in vernacular at an official function.
Why was Uhuru insular and cagey about granting one-on-one with parliamentary caucus from the Mt Kenya region?
Part of the answer lies in the perception that for the longest time since he was finance minister and deputy prime minister under Kibaki administration,(2008-2012) and now ten years as President, the common person-and voter- felt shortchanged and deceived by Kibaki and Uhuru administrations on where it mattered most:
Negligence of sectors that promise best prospects to generate incomes and jobs for unemployed youth and incomes for rural households.
No amount of high definition documentaries about state of the art infrastructure projects touted out by the Presidential Delivery Unit (PDU) made an impression to the voter whose primary concern was incomes at the household level to feed themselves and their families with dignity.
The sense of alienation, disconnect and insensitivity to all signals hidden in plain sight was palpable, and which was firmly expressed at the ballot on August 9.
Plum appointments to critical action stations is not enough.
In any event in post-Moi era after 2003 there was Uhuru himself at Trade, Finance and President before, Amos Kimunya, David Mwiraria, Mwangi Kiunjuri, Peter Munya, Mary Mungai (former commissioner of cooperatives), late Joseph Nyaga, Ireri Ndwiga and other prominent key players.
For ten years he was President, late President Mwai Kibaki managed to cultivate a public persona he was largely neither vulnerable himself or complicit in underhand deals in public office.
The rationale, logic, need or necessity why he chose not to abolish illegal exemptions for imported crude vegetable oils, or do away with high import duties on imported wheat in spite of the apparent obvious economic fortunes it would unleash puts a stain on his probity suit.
At least in his Catholic faith which he confessed when alive, sin comprises commission and omission , andfor which he would still be required to do a mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.
Which leaves the region’s voter with only two options for redemption: Stir up and engage their agency to make demands on the key action stations for service delivery now than wait to avenge betrayal at the ballot after five years are lost irretrievably;
This route holds best prospects for vigilance and quick action.
But it requires those affected to overcome age old conundrum first identified by the father of free markets, Adam Smith, over 200 years ago:
While vested interests (merchants) are few in number, they are concentrated and well organized to capture government and political processes to do their bidding, while the majority consumers (and voters) are scattered all over to mount effective lobbying!
Two: Pray that Dr Ruto and his advisors understand the need, are keen on delivery, have the spine, courage and resolve to confront vested interests holding back the progress of majority Kenyans for so long.
Low Hanging Fruits and Quick Win Sectors
There are opportunities galore for quick progress and positive outcomes if there was good will and resolve to deliver on promises made.
Three sectors would suffice for illustration:
Coffee:
-Under the stewardship of Prof Njuguna Ndung’u ( as think tank chair), the Kibaki Foundation produced a document in 2016, that concluded that the problem facing small-holder coffee sector across 32 coffee counties was not marketing cartels as is the popular political lore, but low production.
The document proposed injection of sh 10 billion revolving fund to support farmers revive neglected coffee plants, support others switch from oldcoffee varieties to new ones that yield higher returns, and digitize cooperative society processes to boost efficiency in management.
The document had projected a measurable turnaround within 18-24 months and a maximum of 32 months.
The document was handed in, in anticipation President Uhuru and retired President Kibaki would launch it to accord it credence even with banks and development agencies.
The Co-operative bank and Stabex EU fund among others had already expressed interest to get on board.
However, instead of the anticipated launch, some vested interests hijacked the momentum, and responded by launching a “rival†Coffee Task Force, head by land economist and scholar, Prof Joseph Keya, and the rest is history.
Despite all the promises made, emotions expended and betrayed, the status of small holder coffee is no better than late Kibaki found it in 2003, and Uhuru left it in 2022.
–Vegetable Oil Crops
Kenya imported some 800000 metric tons of crude edible vegetable oils at a cost of sh 78 billion in 2017 and sh 59 billion in 2018 according to Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
This is sourced mainly from Indonesia, Ukraine and Malaysia.
Vegetable oils are processed from crops that have proven good performance under Kenya climate and soils-sunflowers, cashew nuts and ground nuts and palm oil.
These are easy to grow in Kenya across climatic zones from the Coast, the Highlands to Western Kenya sugar belt.
The total import volume was just above 800,000 metric tons in 2018 ( KNBS, Economic Survey 2019).
Besides reducing hemorrhage of scarce foreign currency, this sector is a sure gold mine for immediate homegrown jobs creation in their millions and generation of quick incomes for households several seasons a year.
But for the commercial comfort of a few, the sector is patronized by handful of cartels of edible oils importers passing off as “manufacturers†at the expense of majority Kenyan farmers, tax payers , voters and jobless youth.
The cartels run their racket by securing illegal exemptions by subverting zero rating of the crude edible oils imports against the official policy of GOK for total enforcement of Common External Tarrifs (CETs) for all products that do not meet 25% in local intermediate manufacturing inputs.
Imported crude edible oils do not meet these criteria of 25% local manufacturing inputs as it only involves packaging, labeling and distribution after importation. EAC has been on Kenya’s case to abolish the exemptions for over 10 years.
All official EAC secretariat and World Bank reports on trade have repeatedly questioned these exemptions as hindering Kenya manufacturing growth, job creation, rural income growth and contributing to destabilizations of EAC’s enforcement of Common External Tariffs (CETs).
Experts posit banning imports and putting some 3 million acres under oil crops to produce some 800, 000 metric tons of the vegetable oil being imported currently, would generate anything between 1.5-2 million jobs in 18-24 months in processing, transport, bulking etc .
It has never been clear whether the chinks holding this decision back are domiciled at the National Treasury where the illegal exemptions are granted, or at State House where policy to comply with or violate EAC Common External tariffs by the Trade department are made.
-Wheat imports
Kenya consumes over 1.2 million metric tons of wheat a year, but produces a dismal 250-300 metric tons in the hands of a handful of farmers in Narok and Timau.
This means the bulk of wheat consumed in Kenya is imported.
Past governments have insisted on a strange policy of deliberately inflicting pain on majority consumers by imposing high import custom duties on imported wheat in order to protect a handful of small time wheat farmers in Narok and Timau.
Trouble is this policy is a double edged sword in its adverse impact on Kenya economy and consumer:
The high customs levied on imported wheat ensures wheat products like bread are artificially kept high with no sound economic sense as to whether protecting a handful of small time local wheat farmers is worth the pain the majority consumers of wheat products are burdened with by legal fiat.
Two, and perhaps more consequentially, wheat husks comprise a critical component of animal and poultry feeds, whose high costs- owing to the high import duties- have a bearing on high cost of milk and poultry production and small holder farm gate margins.
This scenario is key factor why eggs imported from South Africa are cheaper in Nairobi than eggs produced in Kiambu.
The actions required turning around these scenarios for immediate incomes, livelihoods and jobs to address bulging unemployment afflicting rural households require no new laws, policies or protracted program rollout beyond simple administrative actions.
The action stations are National Treasury, Agriculture and Trade departments, and, of course, impetus from the State House.
He cumulative economic returns to families and households could be much more drastic and sustainable than Hustler Fund in terms of scale and impact.