The Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) and constitutional changes debate have assumed a life of their own as topical political discourse of the day.

In Mt Kenya , the elephant in the room is who commands the political sway between the BBI proponents  led by President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, and the lead  face on the opposite end of the spectrum of the debate, Deputy President, William Ruto.

President Kenyatta is the one  most likely to have an accurate pulse of the region’s political tempo.

Mr Ruto and Mr Odinga are vulnerable to hubris of their paid lieutenants and sweet tongued foot soldiers. They will need caution in assessing what they hear and see especially on two issues:

 First, President Kenyatta is fully awake to the fact that a critical mass in his base is yet to buy into his BBI project and his newly found brotherhood with Mr Odinga.

Two, he is also fully awake to the fact that majority in the Mt Kenya region only differ to him as the senior most politician and head of state, but also have festering issues with his administration in relation to unmet expectations and promises.

Many influential voices have been mute on many topical issues not because they necessarily agreed with him, but due to respect they have for him.

This muted neutrality is not likely to hold steady in a competitive YES-NO referendum contest, that may create an opportunity for his home base to express itself freely but anonymously at the ballot box.

Among kinks Kenyatta supporters resent is the prevailing environment where the ruling Jubilee Party seems to have lost traction.

This narrative is fueled by the undisguised manner in which President Kenyatta and a section of his core supporters seem to have outsourced champions for some Jubilee’s key political agenda like the war on corruption to rival turned ally, Mr Odinga, and his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

Jubillee supporters concerned about this outsourcing of what is essentially a government agenda to a rival who is yet to be defanged, disband his political machine or abandon his ambitions as surrender.

They blame the situation on self-defeating neglect by Jubilee to make a strong case of its own merit and credentials. In their view, the party is seen to have acquiesced to intimidation.

This has cost Jubilee dearly in terms of image by failure to put its case before Kenyans in defence of democracy and the constitution.

And to cover up for failure to drive its own agenda with the courage of its own convictions, Jubilee is now viewed to have caved in to extraneous distractions that were not part of its 2017 Election Manifesto so as to appease a fierce rival normally at his element exposing the government’s soft under belly.

Indeed, some muted voices have gone as far as to suggest President Kenyatta should bite the bullet like his mentor, retired President Daniel Moi, and invite Mr Odinga to join government via a 1998 National-Development Party (NDP)-Kanu co-operation style, than continue to suffer the discomfort of being in a mpango wa kando kind of an ill defined political relationship.

“That would give Jubilee family direction and clear the current confusion.It would also give the civil service the clarity and confidence they need in deciding how to treat instructions and directions from Mr Odinga as an accountable member of government. Confusion reigns when civil service is not sure whether Mr Odinga speaks for himself or for the President when he makes certain statements, makes a telephone call or sends an emissary to some Cabinet secretary” a source said.

There is a pervasive dread among senior civil servants against being labeled “anti-handshake” if they didn’t comply with such contacts.

Regardless of intense passions pitting the camps marking the fault lines in Mt Kenya today, many, including those who disagree with President Kenyatta, were still keen to avert a scenario that would provoke a rebellion against a referendum vote that would taint his legacy..

In readiness for a possible ultimate acrimonious fallout in case Jubilee failed to mend widening rifts, old parties are being refurbished and new ones have been registered in readiness to channel the region’s political energy in whichever party sponsors will fancy.

Jubilee’s greatest sin of omission is neglecting to persuade itself and well-wishers about the fact that the party commanded electoral supremacy since 2015 by-elections due to willingness to take the painful decision to dissolve partner parties to consolidate energies and resources.

Whether the decision was driven by desperate hunger for power or fear of defeat, it remains the one single mission-critical decision the party made and which ensured victory over fractious NASA rivals in 2017.

By wisdom of hide sight, parliament would have been harder to manage had Jubilee gone the NASA way of fielding candidates on affiliate party tickets.

Failure to showcase its credentials has cost it opportunities to brand itself as a better strategist and organiser

In contrast, as Jubilee consolidated, rival Cord and Nasa coalitions were crippled by mistrust and suspicions. There was also the flavour of mutual contempt to ensure they never bonded sufficiently to collapse into one formidable outfit.

Instead, they have retained their respective and separate party formations intact to their grieve and loss.

At the voter-level, the BBI proponents will have to contend with entrenched attitudes that may stand in the way of selling constitutional amendments pegged on diluting the powers of the Executive in the Mt Kenya region.

Any analyst seeking to understand the reservations the region may have towards proposals to further weaken the Executive   must keep in mind this constituency highly values constitutional order complete with powerful, stable state capable of protecting all Kenyans in all parts of the country.

This is because historically, their kin are the greatest losers and victims when authority of the state is challenged by ethnic and political demagogues in cyclic politically instigated ethnic cleansing violence that break out around election times in several regions..

This explains why the BBI and attempts at constitutional change likely to dilute or clumsily undermine Executive powers of the state is certain to run into head winds in the region.

Depending on timing of the anticipated Referendum campaigns, messaging and power of persuasion, BBI and its presumed constitutional changes agenda remain a hard sell in the region for the moment.